GoalsGetter Monthly Commentary May 2026

Following a very strong April, global equity markets remained constructive in May on anticipation an enduring peace deal in the Middle East would eventually be made. Negotiations between the US and Iran were ongoing as of month-end, but there was optimism that an agreement would soon be made. Oil prices fell sharply to well below U$100 per barrel and a number of regional or national equity markets reached new all-time highs.

The MSCI ACWI (NZD Hedged) was up 5.1% for the month, and up over 28% on a rolling 1-year basis. The NZ dollar was stronger versus the major currencies meaning the MSCI ACWI Index (NZD unhedged) was up 3.4% (+29.7% rolling 1-year). Global bonds delivered a solid return (+0.5% hedged to NZD) with credit spreads tightening on optimism of an end to the Middle East conflict. NZ bonds comfortably outperformed global with a 1.3% return. The local curve flattened with longer maturity bonds outperforming shorter maturities.

Economic data was mixed in different parts of the world as central bankers continue to try and set short term rates at appropriate levels while dealing with the impact of higher energy prices on inflation and economic growth. US inflation prints came in hotter than expected, but labour market data there was strong. Inflation data in the UK was lower (+2.8% for April) while manufacturing surveys were more optimistic. Eurozone consumer inflation reached 3.2% in May, the highest rate since Sept 2023 and well above the ECB’s 2% target. 

Sector leadership was dominated yet again by information technology with strong gains in the main underlying industry groups; semiconductors, software & services, and hardware/equipment. Energy lagged for a second straight month after a very strong March return. Regionally the best performing countries were those dominated by semiconductor companies – South Korea and Taiwan were up 28% and 15% respectively.