GoalsGetter Monthly Commentary May 2026

Global equity returns for April 2026 joined a short-list of near-record high monthly returns over the last 30 years. The only months that delivered larger gains were April and November 2020 in the Covid period, and April 2009 when markets rebounded from the depths of the global financial crisis. Markets recovered sharply from the brief sell-down in the prior month triggered by the outbreak of war in the Middle East. While the conflict in the Middle East is far from over, markets took comfort from a partial truce and movements towards a longer-term agreement. Oil prices remained elevated with Brent Crude trading at U$114 per barrel at month end, down from the highs reached in March, but still well above the U$60-90 range they have traded in for most of the last few years.

The MSCI ACWI (NZD Hedged) was up 9.0% for the month, and is up over 29% on a rolling 1-year basis. The NZ dollar was stronger versus the major currencies meaning the MSCI ACWI Index (NZD unhedged) was up 6.8% (+32% rolling 1-year).

Returns from bonds over April were more muted, global bonds and NZ bond markets were up 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, and both are slightly negative year-to-date. Higher energy prices and the impact they may have on economic growth and inflation has impacted bond yields at the short and long end of the curve. Central bankers have become slightly less dovish, and in some cases like Australia more hawkish, acknowledging the risk high energy prices could have on inflation expectations. Recent inflation prints were higher from increased energy and transport costs, but for most economies the labour markets and manufacturing activity remained solid.

Sector leadership was dominated by information technology (+19.5%) whereas energy lagged after a very strong March return. Within technology the best performing industry group was semi-conductors, up over 27% for the month, and now up nearly 120% over the 12-month period!