GoalsGetter Monthly Commentary November 2025

Global markets took a breather in November, with both equities and bonds finishing the month close to where they started. For global equities November was the first flattish month since the turmoil in April from the “Liberation Day” tariff announcements. Global bonds were flat for the month led by US bonds which did well on expectations the US Fed would continue cutting rates. Japanese bonds underperformed following the announcement of a fiscal stimulus package from new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

The MSCI ACWI (NZD Hedged) was flat for the month, but is up over 16% on a rolling 1 year basis. The NZ dollar was slightly stronger over the month versus the US dollar and Japanese yen, meaning the MSCI ACWI Index (NZD unhedged) was down -0.3% (+21.8% rolling 1-yr). Global bonds (hedged to NZD) delivered a small gain of 0.1%, whereas NZ Bonds underperformed this with a -0.8% return with longer term yields rising, but remain comfortably ahead on a year-to-date basis.

The US federal government shutdown was ended after a record 43 days, however funding was only secured to the end of January. The impact of the shutdown has been fairly muted in terms of market reaction, but it has caused a delay in the release of official US economic data. Employment figures continue to paint a picture of a slightly softer labour market, and consumer confidence surveys remain weak. Divergent views among US Fed policymakers on the need for further rate cuts were evident in public comments and October meeting minutes. The central banks in Japan, Australia and the UK all kept rates unchanged, with the RBA and BoJ citing concerns around inflation.

The mega-cap technology names - and a number of AI-related companies - generally underperformed over the month on the back of concerns there was a valuation bubble developing in this fast-evolving space. Volatility in equity markets was slightly higher than recent months, and the more defensive sectors performed well which helped ‘value’ stocks outperform ‘growth’ stocks. On a regional basis, Japan and China both lagged the broader market, after performing strongly year to date. Australia was also a laggard versus global peers, while US, European, UK and New Zealand markets were all flat to slightly down.