GoalsGetter Monthly Commentary January 2026
Global equity markets began the new year with strong returns despite continued geo-political tensions. Emerging markets were the stand-out performer, benefiting from strong local market returns in Brazil, South Korea and Taiwan. Global bonds were slightly positive for the month, with continued speculation around the next Chair for the US Federal Reserve. The MSCI ACWI (NZD Hedged) was up 2.3% for the month, and is up over 18% on a rolling 1 year basis. The US dollar was weak over the month, in part due to US-driven geopolitical tensions, meaning the NZ Dollar moved above US $0.60c. This drove the weakness in the MSCI ACWI Index (NZD unhedged) which was down -2.1% (+13.9% rolling 1-yr). Global bonds (hedged to NZD) delivered a small gain of 0.1%, whereas NZ Bonds underperformed this with a -0.3% return with yields rising across the maturity curve.
The start of the new year saw continued geo-political tensions, with President Trump’s announcement around US intentions to take control of Greenland straining diplomatic ties with Europe and NATO before a framework for a future deal were agreed. Macroeconomic data continued on a similar trend to how it finished 2025. US economic growth expectations for the final quarter of 2025 are high, following on from a strong Q3 print (+4.4%). US inflation readings also softened further. While the Fed kept rates unchanged, expectations are they will deliver 1 or 2 rate cuts by year end. Europe data showed inflation remains in-check there, at or near levels desired by the ECB, however growth remains tepid, albeit that expectations for next year have moved slightly higher from around 1%.
Sector leadership for the first month of 2026 came from the cyclical energy and materials sectors, while information technology took a back seat for once, finishing near the bottom of the rankings. On a regional basis, Japan, Hong Kong and China outperformed markets in the US and Europe, while markets such as South Korea and Taiwan were driven higher by some of the large local technology companies benefitting from rapidly increasing capital expenditure plans on AI infrastructure.
