The main feature of global markets for the third quarter of 2026 was the move higher in bond yields. This saw negative returns for global and local bonds, while equity markets ground their way higher, helped by another impressive earnings season. Geopolitical tensions remained high and the war in the Middle East showed no signs of resolution towards a lasting peace. Oil prices moved back above U$100 per barrel, and gas prices also ended the quarter higher. This upward pressure on energy prices, along with a new wave of trade tariffs announced by the US administration, meant inflation prints remained elevated. Many central banks moved short term interest rates higher. Sovereign issuance is still heavy and with US Hyperscalers also tapping into debt markets, global bond yields moved to levels not seen since pre-GFC days.
Despite the volatile geopolitical scene, economic growth proved resilient in the main regions around the world. Composite purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) reached their highest levels since 2021 and 2023 for the US and Euro area respectively. The US remained the main engine of developed-market growth, with consumer spending holding up well.
Global equities (MSCI ACWI-NZD Hedged) were down just under 1% in September, and up 0.9% for the quarter. The NZ dollar fell sharply against all the majors over September, and was also weaker over the quarter, meaning returns for unhedged global equites (MSCI ACWI-NZD) were stronger than fully hedged, up 3.9% for the month, and up 2.3% for the quarter. Global bonds had a tough month and quarter due to upwards pressure on yields. Global bonds (hedged to NZD) were down -1.8% for the month of September (-2.9% for the quarter) while NZ Bonds fared slightly better than their global counterparts, down -1.0% for September and down -2.0% for the quarter.