The first quarter of 2026 was dominated by the conflict in the Middle East. The US-Israeli attack on Iran triggered a sell-off in both equities and bonds with the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz raising fears of stagflation. The quarter initially picked up where 2025 left off with strong returns from global equities before the conflict began in late February. Global bonds (hedged to NZD) were down -2% for the month of March (-0.6% for the quarter) as fears of inflation and possible central bank hikes pushed yield curves higher. NZ Bonds fared slightly better than their global counterparts, down -1.7% for March and -0.5% for the quarter.
The MSCI ACWI (NZD Hedged) was down -6.6% for March, and down -3.1% for the quarter. The NZ dollar was weaker against all the major’s, meaning returns for the MSCI ACWI (in NZD terms) were stronger than fully hedged, down -2.8% for the month, and down -2.8% for the quarter.
Economic data continued to paint a mixed picture in many countries. US economic data remained resilient and this combined with some more hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve contributed to a stronger US dollar. Economic growth signals from Europe and Asia were more tepid. The industrial base in countries like Germany is highly sensitive to energy price volatility and if energy prices remain elevated this will impact economic growth. Relative currency movements showed a tale of two worlds. For countries who are net exporters of commodities (Brazil for example) benefited from soaring energy prices, while net oil importers - most Asia nations - saw currency weakness.
Energy was the standout sector for both March and the first quarter. Over March it was the only sector to post a positive return. Weakness in software as a service companies on fears AI may disrupt their business models was another key theme for the quarter. On a regional basis, emerging markets lagged the broader market for March, but still outperformed over the first quarter. New Zealand equities lived up to their defensive reputation in March, but were still down over 5%. Europe (-9.3%), Australia (-7.7%), UK (-6.7%) and Japan (-13.2%) equites markets fared even worse.