Global equity markets delivered a strong return over August. Many global equity markets returned to, or near to, all-time highs despite heightened tensions in the Middle East and modestly higher global bond yields. Oil prices weakened early in the month on optimism talks would begin on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The two sides could not reach consensus and oil prices moved higher again.
Oil prices ended the month close to where they began around U$90 per barrel. Economic growth remained resilient and second quarter company earnings came in ahead of expectations, particularly in the United States. Outlook statements from companies involved in the AI-infrastructure buildout reinforced confidence in the ongoing investment in this area.
The MSCI ACWI (NZD Hedged) delivered a solid return (+2.3%) for the month and is now up 21.1% on a rolling 1 year basis. The NZ dollar was slightly stronger versus the major currencies, meaning the MSCI ACWI Index (NZD unhedged) was up +2.0% (+22.0% rolling 1-yr). Both global bonds and NZ bonds were very close to flat over the month. Long-term interest rates reached new multi-decade highs in many countries, including the US, Germany, France, and Japan. This synchronised repricing of term premia reflected concerns about the ever-increasing debt levels of many governments, as well as the inflation headache caused by high energy prices.
Sector leadership came from across the board over August. Information Technology was once again among the strongest contributors following its July correction. In the more economically cyclical sectors, Materials stocks benefited from improving industrial sentiment and continued support from commodity markets, and Energy companies performed well as geopolitical tensions remained unresolved.